URGENT WARNING: Trump is Planning to Invade Canada & Greenland

The Regime’s Big Talk Indicates that the Decision Has Been Made; They Just Don’t Know How or When.

Note: This assessment has been in the works for over a month. It has been broadly discussed on two X Spaces in the last week and in my Substack discussions with both Michael Cohen and Steven Beschloss. As an American married to a Canadian, my worries are not only for my in-laws but also for my Canadian and American friends who serve in the intelligence community and the armed forces on both sides of the border.

However, the details of Trump’s phone conversations with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have given me, and finally, the New York Times, an unambiguous intelligence indicator that the decision has been made to annex Canada. This is my assessment of the situation.

Bottom Line Up Front Assessment

The political rhetoric in the first five weeks of the Trump regime is giving clear indications that the United States fully intends to invade and seize Canada and Greenland at President Trump’s command. The possible timeline is 6-18 months of political destabilization to weaken the Canadian economy, split political parties, and carry out secret destabilization efforts, including identifying and making contact with Canadians who would betray their country.

The best hope is that the operation would be compromised and the planning publicized well in advance of mobilization by anti-Trump loyalists to the Constitution in the intelligence and armed forces who would recognize the campaign's foolhardiness. However, this does not guarantee that Trump would not carry out the attack.

The occupation of Canada would quickly become a continent-wide, high-intensity modern war akin to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It would rapidly devolve into a higher-intensity insurgency, which could lead to the deaths of thousands on both sides. Any operation would most likely collapse the American economy and precipitate a violent Second American Civil War.

This timeline is the most likely but worst course of action. Aerial combat operations followed by Special Forces actions to seize key facilities against Canada’s armed forces could come quickly and with almost no warning.

In Army doctrine, the military planning cycle is performed to lend "thoroughness, clarity, sound judgment, logic, and professional knowledge to understand situations, develop options to solve problems, and reach decisions." COAs are generally based on Feasibility, Suitability, Acceptability, and Completeness. In other words, “Can it be done?”, Should it be done?” “Is it proper to do?” and “Can it work?”

In the Trump White House, none of these factors in planning are ever considered seriously. They operate from gut instinct and have adopted an attitude that Presidential immunity and the backing of the World's Richest Man, Elon Musk, gives them the latitude to do whatever they want.

The actions and rhetoric of the Trump regime clearly indicate there is a secret agenda/agreement between him and his oligarch supporters to expand the United States border from Mexico to the North Pole … and do it by force and Fait Accompli.

Trump & His Cabinet are Politically Shaping the Battlespace

The Trump administration has apparently made a strategic decision to execute a long-planned campaign to expand the United States to encompass all of North America and the Northwestern Atlantic. Though they have openly discussed buying or annexing Greenland, virtually all of his cabinet members apparently were instructed to stridently parrot President Donald Trump's statements referring to Canada as the 51^st state. These statements are assessed to be part of a deliberate political warfare campaign against our northern neighbor to destabilize it in a leadup to armed annexation.

During the transition, Trump started referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “Governor of the 51^st State” in early December 2024. He has repeated this mocking insult in virtually every discussion about Canada.

On January 7, 2025, Trump stated he intended to annex Canada “Economically,” which would result in their union with the USA.

On February 2, 2025, just 13 days into the administration, Trump gave the most detailed framework in the political destabilization campaign when he wrote on Truth Social.

"We pay hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidise (sic) Canada. Why? There is no reason. We don't need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable country. Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our cherished 51st state. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada -- and no tarrifs (sic)!"

Forty-eight hours later, he started a trade war with Canada by imposing 25% tariffs. The decision was shortly rescinded, but he would again implement them a month later. Some intelligence analysts and political economists in Canada see these short destabilizing implementations as part of a planned campaign to test the waters of the stock market and measure the resilience of the Canadian economy. Each of these tariff implementations also inflicted short-term pain on the American economy. The stock market reacted dramatically to the March 2025 implementation by erasing all gains earned since the election in 2024. According to financestrategies.com, the lost market value totaled $1.2 trillion. Canada immediately imposed retaliatory tariffs of 25%. Additionally, individual premieres of Canadian provinces, such as Doug Ford of Ontario, removed US alcohol from liquor store shelves. Electrical prices were raised by 25% and would not be removed until the entirety of Trump’s tariff threats were eliminated. That is not likely to happen.

According to the New York Times, on February 3, 2025, a phone call between Trump and Trudeau started acrimoniously and devolved into obscenities. Trump demanded access to the Canadian Dairy market and that Canada stop Fentanyl trafficking across the border, which is a microscopic 43 pounds compared to the 148 pounds Canada had intercepted coming from America and the 21,000 lbs coming in from Mexico. Canada announced their intention to implement a stricter border plan agreed with President Joe Biden, and Trump seemed to acquiesce … but attacks on Canada increased.

The cabinet members themselves have adopted the 51st state Mantra. Most surprisingly, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem went to the Haskell Library and Opera House in Derby, Vermont. The building was deliberately built in 1901 to straddle the border. You can cross the frontier by stepping over a long piece of tape in one room. Noem mockingly stepped across from the American side of the room, where she said, “U.S.A. Number 1!” to the Canadian side, where she sarcastically said, “The 51^st State!”… no less than three times.

On March 7, 2025, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told India Today, “If their economy is entirely based on America, it's entirely based on the agreements with America, their defense is entirely about America, then it's interesting for [President] Donald Trump to think what is the right answer for Canada," He also claims the “vast majority” of Canadian youth want to join the US. This is a fantasy based on an out-of-date poll from the pre-inauguration day that showed 40% of Canadians between 18-34 would want to join the United States but only in certain conditions if they could exchange their money without loss. However, in that poll, 80% of Canadians reject any idea of joining America. It shot up to 90% in the latest Angus/Reid poll. Trump is clearly focusing on the Gen Z white males that may fall under Elon Musk’s thrall. That thrall may not exist.

In response to these comments, Canadian news media and politicians exploded in outrage. This disbelief and anger has turned regular hockey games in Canada into loud patriotic events. Canadians of all stripes, even the most conservative, pro-Trump premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, have decried the darkening hints that America is about to mug Canada in the daylight.

In early February 2025, Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair said he did not believe the threats were real. Still, by this writing, most Canadian politicians believed a real, dangerous threat of annexation existed.

In one of his last statements, outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated Trump wanted a “total collapse of the Canadian economy because that will make it easier to annex us … That is never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state."

Trump’s Most Likely Plan of Action

Phase 1 - Political Destabilization and Subversion of Greenland

In his India Today interview, Howard Lutnick spelled it out. "We need Greenland for national security for the Arctic. Everyone would agree that Greenland is vital. And why is Denmark there? Because the Vikings conquered it hundreds of years ago? I mean, what does Denmark have to do with Greenland? You know the answer is nothing,"

The next likely path is for the White House to make increasingly dramatic statements about demanding a referendum amongst the people of Greenland. Coupled with a massive social media campaign backed by Elon Musk, a false narrative that Greenlanders want to join the United States would start to permeate the right-wing and pro-Russian news media. Trump and his staff have already commented that Greenland is critical to the United States for “national security.” What they failed to mention is that they want access to rare earth minerals for advanced technologies. Although these minerals exist in the United States, there is an imperialistic belief that Canada and Greenland are untapped regions of wealth that America must control if it wants to dominate the 21st century.

Note that an early phone call between Trump and the Danish Prime Minister left the Danes in a panic when they realized his shouting and use of profanities convinced them that he was dead serious about seizing Greenland. So, what is the goal of all of this talk? The goal of seizing Greenland would give Trump’s imperialist and technologist cronies access to massive under-ice mineral deposits. Note that these could only be accessed if Trump lets climate change continue to take its toll on the North Sea Ice. Also, in the political uproar of a military annexation, the United States could use the pretext of moving its naval and military assets into defensive positions near Greenland for a surprise invasion of Canada.

Photo: US 82nd Airborne troops jump from a C-17. (Credit: US Department of Defense)

Phase 2 - Economic Destabilization of Canada

To get a false Casus Belli, Trump would likely dump massive amounts of money into fringe political groups. One of them is Wexit, a group that wants Western Canada, particularly the oil-rich provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, to split and join the USA. Groups such as these, under the guidance of the Republican party via clandestine pathways operated by the CIA, could receive tens of millions of dollars to fund a nationwide information warfare campaign to give the appearance that there are a large majority of Canadians who want to leave and join the USA. Elon Musk would likely dedicate hundreds of millions of dollars to this ridiculous idea. Coupled with a massive international social media attack, the confusion would be enough to give Trump cover that he was “rescuing” the Canadian people from an extremist liberal autocratic government. Dozens of false polls would cover the truth and drown out opposition.

Phase 3 - Invade Greenland and then Canada

Musk’s Neoreactionary (NRx) Ideology Agenda

Less discussed is how Trump’s plan reflects the technological imperialist/monarchist plans of Elon Musk’s Neo-Reactionary (NRx) “Dark Enlightenment” philosophy. NRx is a belief that democracy must be eliminated and the country run under a corporatist, technological dictatorship and their belief that massive quantities of natural resources will be necessary to harness the economy needed for advanced technologies … to go to Mars. Traditional oligarchs want to exploit the earth's resources without restraint and regulation. With Trump, the oligarch’s dreams of economic and cultural domination of the West, removing sanctions against Russia, and allowing Musk to automate government with Artificial Intelligence is coming true.

As part of the political instability campaign, Trump stated in early February that “Canada was not viable” as a country. Trump explicitly said, “Canada would not exist without the United States.”

On February 24, 2025, Elon Musk tweeted on his social media platform X that “Canada is not a real country.” Musk surely deliberately chose those words after being privy to the discussions about annexing the country in a rapid invasion.

They are almost the very words and justification that Putin used for the invasion of Ukraine.

Political Consequences of War: Insurgency, Mutiny, Civil War

The consequences of any decision to move to Greenland or Canada are grave for the people of the United States. The political turmoil that would follow would immediately constitute a Constitutional crisis as the Republican party would likely provide cover and surrender its role as a co-equal branch of government that could rein in such a wild idea.

On a global scale, the United States would become a pariah nation. Only Russia and a few hanger-on states in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa would view this as a positive event. Europe would have to make the terrifying decision of cutting off all trade with the United States. Both Canada and Denmark are NATO nations. Both would have no option but to invoke Article 5, calling for the collective defense of their lands. This would mean that the nation that founded NATO would be at war with the other 31 countries in the alliance.

Despite America having strategic nuclear weapons and dominant armed forces, the political turmoil would not be limited to the civilian world. Members of the Armed Forces, 43% of whom are minorities, principally people of color, and a few remaining loyal officers and enlisted, would likely view orders to attack our neighbors without aggression as an unlawful order. As many as 60% of the American Armed Forces would refuse to execute any operation to attack Canada. Military units, such as the 10^th Mountain Division in Fort Drum, New York, are just a few miles from Ontario. On weekends, they often cross the border to Canada to drink and entertain with their families. An order to take their weapons and kill the Canadian Customs and Border police, city SWAT teams, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and mobilizing Canadian Armed Forces as well as innocent civilians is not an order that any true American soldier would follow.

Trump would be made aware of this by his highly underqualified Secretary of Defense. Like the Russian invaders of Ukraine, orders would go out under the guise of “training exercises” and end with the seizure of Greenland and Canada. However, the other critical units, such as the 101^st and 82^nd Airborne Divisions, would be needed to take Montreal, Quebec City, Ottowa, Toronto, Edmonton, Regina, and Vancouver. Their mobilization for Greenland operation would provide cover for a blitz on Canada. The operations concept would be to “dare” the Canadians to open fire on them in hopes that the country would just “Lay back and let it happen.” Team Trump’s sycophants somehow seem to believe that the Canadians would surrender quickly and quietly.

They have never been to a hockey game.

If this all sounds vaguely familiar, it is because that is the exact plan Vladimir Putin had for his invasion of Ukraine. And like the invasion of Ukraine, the Canadian people would likely rise up as a body and fight to the death. The US may be able to seize a few airports and, over a few weeks, push heavy forces into Canada, but all this would do is send in a protracted paramilitary counterinsurgency. It is one thing to seize terrain and another to hold it. The American public would be confronted with video images of their sons and daughters being picked off one by one at night by Canadian soldiers, reservists, and citizens who volunteered as paramilitary partisans. Imagine Afghanistan, but where the opponents have some of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems, shooting American helicopters down with impunity or IEDs improvised, explosive devices hidden in Beaver dams or moose carcasses. The very idea that we are forced to discuss this is fantastical and ridiculous. However, the Trump administration appears to be serious.

Such an extremely disastrous decision as invading Canada would lead to the Second American Civil War. Border states from Michigan to Maine would immediately refuse to comply with all orders from Washington. The National Guard units of these states could not be federalized in the face of what each governor would deem an unlawful order. This would set up clashes with guard units, police, and SWAT teams that may personally see themselves as loyal to Donald Trump. These two competing loyalties, one to Trump and one to the Constitution would exacerbate tensions on such a vast scale that disobeying orders would place the Armed Forces in a state of mutiny.

Additionally, some loyalist Trump units may take their arms and engage their fellow service members. The chain of events stemming from this is too horrific to fathom. But Team Trump is blathering on and on with a complete and total disregard for the consequences that could destroy the unity and fabric of this nation.

Apparently, Trump's guiding principle is the children’s board game Risk. This game is about imperial domination, where your strategy can win or lose on the roll of dice. There is no public plan for Trump's actions, but Trump's statements give us guidelines to show that they are serious about seizing these two nations. They are clearly willing to roll the dice and see what happens.