How Iran Won The US-Israeli “Twelve Day War”.

Trump’s Battle Damage Assessment Dog and Pony Show revealed that all targets were hit, but the objective was completely missed.

Donald Trump triumphantly proclaimed that he had done what no other President was strong enough to dare. He claimed to have destroyed the Iranian nuclear weapons program that started in 1979.

"Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated…”

When the media pushed back with evidence that this might not be the case, Trump repeatedly said that all of Iran's nuclear weapons capability was so badly damaged it was “virtual obliteration”, “total obliteration”, “it's been obliterated”, and “it's gone.”

Trump’s bluster and braggadocio, which he stated within minutes of the completion of the attack, were not backed up by intelligence.

Of course, when America strikes you with its largest weapons short of atomic bombs, there is going to be significant damage. However, Trump has a penchant for exaggerating the slightest event as monumental, earth-shattering, stupendous, and the best in the world's history. The rhetoric around this strike was no different.

24 hours after US Air Force B-2 Bombers and 30 cruise missiles fired from a submarine struck the Iranian Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear weapons sites, CNN received a leaked Battle Damage Assessment. The preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), stated that they believed the sites damaged Iran’s nuclear program but did not destroy “the core components of the country’s nuclear program.” The DIA report also stated that the program could be back on track “in months.”

The DIA, run by the Department of Defense, is the principal intelligence organization responsible for determining the effectiveness of the US Air Force strike, primarily by analyzing satellite imagery the way it works is that DIA would have the entire historic database of satellite images of each of these sites going back to well before they were constructed in the early 2000s. The long-term imagery study would reveal precisely when and how these bunkers were constructed. That information would be core to a group called the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). This is a small, secretive military intelligence agency that tracks the movement of nuclear materials worldwide.

Within minutes of its release into the news, Karoline Leavitt proclaimed that the report was only “tidbits” of Top-Secret material leaked to CNN. This confirmed the existence of the report, the accuracy of what CNN received, and verified its Top Secret classification while trying to insult Journalist Nastasha Bertrand.

None of these professional opinions mattered. The narrative Trump promoted was that this was a singular event in the history of the world. He wanted to have it named “The Twelve Day War,” a cute moniker to be equated to Israel’s blitzing Six-Day War in 1967. Unfortunately, the US contribution to the war lasted just 36 hours.

No matter what the results, superlatives were the demand of the administration, and the sycophancy exploded across the news media. Pete Hegseth, the man sitting in the office of the Secretary of Defense, came out to the first press briefing angry and swinging at anyone who got in his way. He successfully cheered the details of the Pentagon's military action.

Hegseth declared that “President Trump directed the most complex and secretive military operation in history.” The stunning ignorance of that comment was lost on everyone in MAGA.

Operation Midnight Hammer was certainly militarily significant, but it was not historically extraordinary. By the time American bombers took off, Israel had already spent ten days devastating every aspect of Iran’s air defense forces and smashing the peripheral nuclear sites well in advance of the US attack.

Let’s be honest, the strike was simply a long-range bombing attack that went off without any hiccups. It was not even as secretive or risky as the Raid to kill Osama Bin Laden.

While Washington was playing this dangerous game of blaming the media and hunting for leakers, the Iranians were calmly hiding their nuclear materials with the intent of making an arsenal of atomic bombs.

Nuclear Sleight of Hand

The administration wanted their war narrative to be about the bravery, accuracy, and difficulty of the bombing attack. They extolled the skill of the airmen and sailors who launched missiles and dropped bombs. Alternatively, they wanted to show “Daddy”
Trump is using violent force against America’s enemies to mask the ridiculous parade he threw for himself.

Regardless of the reason, the single most important question remains unanswered.

Question: Did the bombers destroy the nuclear materials necessary to make an atomic bomb out of Iran’s hands?

Answer: No.

To “Obliterate” Iran’s entire nuclear program required an amount of force that would allow the following questions to be answered YES:

1) Were ALL 30,000 advanced centrifuges damaged or destroyed - MAYBE

2) Are ALL the centrifuges destroyed or damaged, irreplaceable or unrepairable - NO

3) Were ALL nuclear weapons components located and destroyed – NO

4) Were ALL Research Complexes destroyed – MAYBE

5) Was ALL the enriched Uranium 235 destroyed or seized - NO

Image: Iranian homemade nuclear enrichment centrifuges. (Photo: IAEA)

A combined effort between the Israeli Air Force and subsequent B-2 bomber strikes may have met some of these objectives. The attacks by Israel were focused and withering. The American follow-up strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have certainly damaged or destroyed many of the sensitive centrifuges. But the issue of future enrichment is no longer the heart of the Iranian program.

To destroy the entirety of the Iranian nuclear program, one must bury or destroy the single most important component … the enriched Uranium-235.

The problem with the B-2 strike was that the mission objectives seemed to rely on the presumption that the Iranians would never move it. It was as if we believed they would sit still and just let their most valuable asset be destroyed at America’s or Israel’s leisure.

That is a laughable assumption. In fact, we should have assumed that the day Israel started its war, moving and dispersing the material would be their highest national priority. That appears to be the case.

The Uranium Shell Game

Fox News reported that the leader of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission in Iran, Rafael Grossi, confirmed 400kg or 881 lbs of enriched uranium was removed from the facilities soon before America and Israel attacked.

In the same press conference that Hegseth praised the attack, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, admitted that it was “way too early to comment” on whether the bombings badly damaged the Iranian program. This was a professional hedge that shows the military is not joining in with Trump and Hesgeth’s claims of absolute victory.

Image: An IRGC armored vehicle such as this could transport 3 or 4 of the lead pigs filled with U-235 (Photo: IRGC)

Iran itself confirmed that it had secretly removed the bulk of the enriched uranium. In fact, the amount of 440 kg is relatively easy to move in a few lead-shielded tanks, called Lead Pigs, the size of a water heater. Five could be loaded in an IRGC Toyota Pickup truck. Half a dozen could move the whole lot. While Iran’s enemies are looking for secret underground bunkers, the IRGC could park them in chicken sheds, underground car parks, or garages

Nuclear proliferation expert, the Director of Arms Control Association, Daryl G Kimball, told Fox News:

“The Iranians had notified just before the Israeli military action that if attacked, they would take the uranium enriched at 60 per cent, the 440 kilograms, out of the facilities and move it somewhere else. I think we have to assume they’ve done that. They were planning for these strikes. It may be the case that Israeli intelligence thinks it knows where Iran took this. I’m actually doubtful, but you never know. But most likely they have moved it. And the IAEA has said they don’t know where it is. JD Vance said the United States does not know where it is. So that’s a problem …”

And, Brother, what a problem it is. As of this writing, all of the components to build and launch an atomic bomb remain intact, and their locations are still secret.

Now Iran has enough enriched uranium to make as many as 9-10 atomic bombs. Also, centrifuges can be built and repaired in Iran.

As for delivery systems, Israel may have destroyed 50% of their ballistic missile launchers, but a concerted national effort to make new missiles and launchers could restore that capability rather quickly.

Bottom Line: The US Strike on the Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz nuclear strikes hit their targets, but now almost 1,000lbs of weapons-grade uranium capable of building nine atomic bombs is missing and likely moved before the strikes. If the goal was to destroy Iran’s enriched uranium and end its nuclear program, Israel and the United States have failed.

By keeping the enriched uranium from destruction, Iran has technically won the war.

If Trump strikes Iran again in a game of nuclear whack-a-mole, then he telegraphs to the world that all of his bluster and lying were just for his reality show that was being played with the lives of our service members.

Bonus Win for Iran: Initial reports are coming in that the Trump administration through their Middle East special representative Steve Witkoff are ready to offer Iran $30 Billion cash in exchange for the Iranian’s surrendering all of their enriched Uranium and joining the Abraham Accords … the Jared Kushner crafted agreement to get Muslim states to recognize Israel. Additionally, they would have to buy Russian nuclear power plants of the type offered by Gen Michael Flynn in 2016!

This initial offer to a radical Shiite Islamic regime that has existed hating America for 46 years is laughable on its face, but this is how Trump performs. It’s all about making money for Trump, and offering Iran a “taste” is ludicrous, but here we are.

Iran is likely going to make public any offer in an effort to shame Trump, but that would be a fool’s game since he is shameless.

I believe Iran has its own, more realistic plan. I suspect Tehran will use all of its national resources to crash-assemble a rudimentary atomic bomb.

When it is ready, they will detonate it.

It will show Iran’s young scientists (whom Israel did not kill) understood the assignment, which is to make Iran a nuclear power, and rapido.

This will change the entire game.

Bookmark this space.