Thank you, as always, for your professional and thoughtful posting. Important and frightening info, but being hood-winked by the propaganda from the Administration is more frightening. Appreciate your input SO much.
Chief thanks for showing once again why we can’t keep giving keys to Greedy Don, whiskey pete, baby Goebbels & friends. It benefits our adversaries so much that it’s harmful & insulting x10 since this is now Trump 2.0
It’s something to remember as I volunteer at my local museum’s 4th of July event this afternoon.
Both the American public and the Iranian public should be annoyed and insulted that Benedict Donald and his underlings assume that we all are as stupid as they are. Maybe a lot of the MAGAts, but as for anyone god gave the brains of a guppy…..
Former Israeli ambassador to the US, Michael Oren clearly states the dilemma of mistaking "tactics" for "strategy."
"In the aftermath of one of Israel’s border wars with Hamas, a prominent American journalist called me and asked, “I understand what Israel’s tactic is, but what is Israel’s strategy?” My response surprised him. “You don’t understand,” I replied. “Israel’s tactic is our strategy.”
I explained that, since our founding in 1948, Israel has had to defend itself against repeated attempts to destroy us. Each time, we had to remind our enemies that it was not a good idea to attack us and that, by doing so, they would pay a prohibitive price." https://claritywithmichaeloren.substack.com/p/transforming-tactic-to-strategy
Bombing Iran and eliminating their nuclear weapon production capabilities is an arguably good "tactic" but to what "strategy"? Netanyahu and Trump are missing the central motive which is the Islamic Revolutionary Republic is dedicated to "cleansing" the Holy Land of Western (Israel included) decadent influences. That is the reason Iran cannot be allowed to build nuclear capabilities and the coordinated bombing mission was a good starting tactic, but, no, it is far too soon to unveil the "Mission Accomplished" banner.
Regime change and nation-building are the strategies for the bombing tactics. As you mentioned, Iran is on a "sacred mission from Allah" to press onward. If they can't build a nuclear ballistic missile, they can easily fashion a "dirty bomb" from their enriched uranium stockpile and deliver it in a U-Haul truck to the heart of Tel Aviv and/or New York. No, the "mission" has only begun. Can the U.S. and Israel pull off this strategy on their own? The history of both country's misadventures regarding the destruction of radical Islam and long-term nation-building is damning. They will need a buy-in from moderate Sunni nations for success. Finding ways to accomplish this should be the primary strategy from which all tactical efforts evolve.
I'm afraidn your both correct and screwed. Iran understood the game and now it's going to build a nuke and balance out Israel. They don't intend to vaporize Jerusalem, but this will make Saudi Arabia want to buy one themselves. Trump will sell it to them.
Yes, we seem to be fixated on the bright shiny object of a nuclear bomb which is more of an expensive psychological weapon than a tactical reality. Nobody has detonated a nuclear weapon since the end of WWII. Russia is not using theirs in the Ukraine War, and has relied on conventional weapons. Not even N. Korea, the “hermit kingdom”, is crazy enough to actually use any of its nukes.
It is important to keep our attention on Iran’s ultimate strategy which is a Holy War against the Sunnis and the West (including Israel). Iran will not nuke Israel because occupying Jerusalem is their ultimate strategy for the “purification” of the Holy Land and Islam. Their tactics may (and will) change, but their “sacred” strategy remains clear. A regime change in Iran, a hard reset back to a secular government, and an eradication of radical Islamism as Egypt has done. The busted bunkers will only result in a change of tactics for Iran. Israel and the U.S. will ultimately lose without the cooperation of the moderate Arab states.
TY Malcolm for keeping us updated in real time about what’s really going on. It’s all so very frightening to realize the reality of where we are. God help us get through this trying time.
Wow Malcolm. . . Thank you so much for a clear explanation of such a complex situation. I was amazed when this guy didn't fuck us over too bad in the first term and I was worried when he got reelected, but damn, this shit just keeps getting worse and worse. It helps to listen to professionals like you to understand what's really going on. On a good note. . . I got a white sheet and a 3'x5' flag to hang on a freeway overpass just like you said. I'm counting on America 🇺🇸 to rise up and say no to this fool. Thanks again for the info.
Chief, I think you're underestimating the Mossad, who've been on a hot streak. Hiding that 400kg of EnUra isn't hard, but hiding it competently from an enemy who has every possible incentive to lot take their eye off the queen is something else. As I've heard it part of the Mossad's MO in arranging the assassinations of as many generals and division heads as they did was exploiting ethnic tensions in Iran. How big a payoff might they offer to know where that moving football could be? There's zero chance the Mossad didn't think about it while planning their moves. Sure it could be in a cow shed. A cow shed probably not guarded by a division of IRGC either. That makes it more vulnerable, not less, to a bunch of strapping lads who kinda hate Persians who get tipped off that it should go in the back of their Hilux pickups for a trip to see a very serious man in sunglasses who's going to send their chieftain a billion dollars in Swiss Bank Bucks. It's also not only the Israelis who fear a nuclear Iran, which in any similar scenario means extra hands willing to help.
As for the launchers sure they're replaceable. I doubt anybody thinks otherwise. That wasn't the idea. Bottle-necking launch capacity to reduce innocent deaths was, and it worked.
trump's a fucking moron; of course he thinks he won a total and complete history-altering victory. He's as pure a case of motivated (non) cognition as ever existed. But let's keep watching the professionals who know the game only ends when one player has to leave the table. They aren't resting.
I give Mossad ALL the props but the dragon is awake now. Anyone with even the slightest suspicion or not is going to get the knife in the neck. Mossad's agent network is going to evaporate if it hasn't already.
Thank you, as always, for your professional and thoughtful posting. Important and frightening info, but being hood-winked by the propaganda from the Administration is more frightening. Appreciate your input SO much.
Chief thanks for showing once again why we can’t keep giving keys to Greedy Don, whiskey pete, baby Goebbels & friends. It benefits our adversaries so much that it’s harmful & insulting x10 since this is now Trump 2.0
It’s something to remember as I volunteer at my local museum’s 4th of July event this afternoon.
Also Natasha Bertrand deserves better.
"Trump’s bluster and braggadocio, which he stated within minutes of the completion of the attack, were not backed up by intelligence."
Sums him up concisely.
Commander Krasnov does what he's told, intelligence does come into play, just not HIS intelligence.
Senior Chief,
Spot on. Great analysis. Iran won and we will pay a significant price for Trump’s grandstanding.
As always, keep up the good work and watch your six.
Steve Dundas
Malcolm, given what we know and can surmise, do you think we'll see an Iranian nuclear test within the year?
Yes. Why not. The rest of the world is being made into shit by trump. Why should this be any different?
Both the American public and the Iranian public should be annoyed and insulted that Benedict Donald and his underlings assume that we all are as stupid as they are. Maybe a lot of the MAGAts, but as for anyone god gave the brains of a guppy…..
Is there much to what he has to say that IS backed up by intelligence
Great column Mal! I got some great laughs out of this! I shared it with my granddaughter and compared it to an episode of the old Keystone Cops!
Thank you for the summary of the events. The WH occupant is going to get us all killed thru his own ignorance & bravado..
Thank you Malcolm. I appreciate the reasonable analysis.
As always, we can count on you to give us the straight facts! I appreciate everything you do!
You are never wrong. Where would they detonate it?
In the eastern deserts near the Baluch-Afghan border
"Wars are easy to start but difficult to end."
Former Israeli ambassador to the US, Michael Oren clearly states the dilemma of mistaking "tactics" for "strategy."
"In the aftermath of one of Israel’s border wars with Hamas, a prominent American journalist called me and asked, “I understand what Israel’s tactic is, but what is Israel’s strategy?” My response surprised him. “You don’t understand,” I replied. “Israel’s tactic is our strategy.”
I explained that, since our founding in 1948, Israel has had to defend itself against repeated attempts to destroy us. Each time, we had to remind our enemies that it was not a good idea to attack us and that, by doing so, they would pay a prohibitive price." https://claritywithmichaeloren.substack.com/p/transforming-tactic-to-strategy
Bombing Iran and eliminating their nuclear weapon production capabilities is an arguably good "tactic" but to what "strategy"? Netanyahu and Trump are missing the central motive which is the Islamic Revolutionary Republic is dedicated to "cleansing" the Holy Land of Western (Israel included) decadent influences. That is the reason Iran cannot be allowed to build nuclear capabilities and the coordinated bombing mission was a good starting tactic, but, no, it is far too soon to unveil the "Mission Accomplished" banner.
Regime change and nation-building are the strategies for the bombing tactics. As you mentioned, Iran is on a "sacred mission from Allah" to press onward. If they can't build a nuclear ballistic missile, they can easily fashion a "dirty bomb" from their enriched uranium stockpile and deliver it in a U-Haul truck to the heart of Tel Aviv and/or New York. No, the "mission" has only begun. Can the U.S. and Israel pull off this strategy on their own? The history of both country's misadventures regarding the destruction of radical Islam and long-term nation-building is damning. They will need a buy-in from moderate Sunni nations for success. Finding ways to accomplish this should be the primary strategy from which all tactical efforts evolve.
I'm afraidn your both correct and screwed. Iran understood the game and now it's going to build a nuke and balance out Israel. They don't intend to vaporize Jerusalem, but this will make Saudi Arabia want to buy one themselves. Trump will sell it to them.
Yes, we seem to be fixated on the bright shiny object of a nuclear bomb which is more of an expensive psychological weapon than a tactical reality. Nobody has detonated a nuclear weapon since the end of WWII. Russia is not using theirs in the Ukraine War, and has relied on conventional weapons. Not even N. Korea, the “hermit kingdom”, is crazy enough to actually use any of its nukes.
It is important to keep our attention on Iran’s ultimate strategy which is a Holy War against the Sunnis and the West (including Israel). Iran will not nuke Israel because occupying Jerusalem is their ultimate strategy for the “purification” of the Holy Land and Islam. Their tactics may (and will) change, but their “sacred” strategy remains clear. A regime change in Iran, a hard reset back to a secular government, and an eradication of radical Islamism as Egypt has done. The busted bunkers will only result in a change of tactics for Iran. Israel and the U.S. will ultimately lose without the cooperation of the moderate Arab states.
TY Malcolm for keeping us updated in real time about what’s really going on. It’s all so very frightening to realize the reality of where we are. God help us get through this trying time.
Wow Malcolm. . . Thank you so much for a clear explanation of such a complex situation. I was amazed when this guy didn't fuck us over too bad in the first term and I was worried when he got reelected, but damn, this shit just keeps getting worse and worse. It helps to listen to professionals like you to understand what's really going on. On a good note. . . I got a white sheet and a 3'x5' flag to hang on a freeway overpass just like you said. I'm counting on America 🇺🇸 to rise up and say no to this fool. Thanks again for the info.
Chief, I think you're underestimating the Mossad, who've been on a hot streak. Hiding that 400kg of EnUra isn't hard, but hiding it competently from an enemy who has every possible incentive to lot take their eye off the queen is something else. As I've heard it part of the Mossad's MO in arranging the assassinations of as many generals and division heads as they did was exploiting ethnic tensions in Iran. How big a payoff might they offer to know where that moving football could be? There's zero chance the Mossad didn't think about it while planning their moves. Sure it could be in a cow shed. A cow shed probably not guarded by a division of IRGC either. That makes it more vulnerable, not less, to a bunch of strapping lads who kinda hate Persians who get tipped off that it should go in the back of their Hilux pickups for a trip to see a very serious man in sunglasses who's going to send their chieftain a billion dollars in Swiss Bank Bucks. It's also not only the Israelis who fear a nuclear Iran, which in any similar scenario means extra hands willing to help.
As for the launchers sure they're replaceable. I doubt anybody thinks otherwise. That wasn't the idea. Bottle-necking launch capacity to reduce innocent deaths was, and it worked.
trump's a fucking moron; of course he thinks he won a total and complete history-altering victory. He's as pure a case of motivated (non) cognition as ever existed. But let's keep watching the professionals who know the game only ends when one player has to leave the table. They aren't resting.
I give Mossad ALL the props but the dragon is awake now. Anyone with even the slightest suspicion or not is going to get the knife in the neck. Mossad's agent network is going to evaporate if it hasn't already.